00 · Resolution risk, compared

Same bet.
Different rulebook.

Kalshi and Polymarket often list the same event. Lockstep reads both rulebooks and flags the cases where they would pay differently.

Independent. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Not investment advice.

Try it · illustrative

One event.
Three endings.

Pick what happens on release day. The rows that decide the payout light up, and the verdict for that case changes.

Illustrative exampleWill Event X happen by Date Y?

Field

Venue A

Venue B

source

Official release

cutoff

10:00 AM ET, Date Y

14:00 UTC, Date Y

delay_fallback

Waits for the release

Uses the prior valuePAYS DIFFERENTLY

tie_rule

Higher bracket

Not statedUNCLEAR

rounding

As published

In this caseout of step

Why it mattersIf the release comes out late, Venue A waits for it and Venue B settles on last month's number. Same bet, two payouts.

01 · The problem

Two venues can list the same event and still disagree on the details. A late release. A tie. A rounding rule. Those details decide who gets paid, and they sit deep in rulebooks nobody has time to read.

Eight fields, compared on every pair

settlement_sourcecutoff_timetime_zonedelay_fallbacktie_ruleroundingcancellationdispute_path

02 · How a verdict is made

Two rulebooks. One verdict.

We line up every clause that decides a payout, then mark the one that breaks the match.

Step 01 · MatchFind the contract on each venue that tracks the same event

Step 02 · CompareRead the rules field by field. Matching clauses fade back

Step 03 · VerdictThe clause that breaks the match decides the verdict

Step 01 · MatchTwo contracts. Eight fields that decide the payout.

Step 02 · CompareSeven fields match. One does not.

Step 03 · Verdictdelay_fallback breaks the match. out of step.

The clause that broke the match · illustrative

Venue A · rulebook excerpt (illustrative) Settles on the official release for the period. Trading closes at 10:00 AM ET on Date Y. If the release is delayed, settlement waits until it is published. Ties resolve to the higher bracket. Values are used as published.

Venue B · rulebook excerpt (illustrative) Resolves on the official release for the period. The market closes at 14:00 UTC on Date Y. If no release by the deadline, the prior period's value is used. Ties resolve to the higher bracket. Values are used as published.

03 · The verdict scale

in lockstep

Both contracts pay the same in every case we checked.

out of step PAYS DIFFERENTLY

At least one realistic case pays differently on each venue.

unclear

A rule is silent, or the outcome is left to the venue's discretion.

04 · Product

What you get.

Available now

Sample report

One full resolution-risk report on a Fed pair, end to end. Read it before you pay.

Request the sample

For desks · API, coming laterGET /v1/pairs/{id}

{
  "pair": "event-x-date-y",
  "verdict": "out_of_step",
  "field": "delay_fallback",
  "venue_a": "waits_for_release",
  "venue_b": "uses_prior_value",
  "pays_differently": true,
  "last_checked": "2026-10-09T16:00:00Z"
}

Dispute
alerts

Know when an outcome is proposed or challenged, before it settles.

Rule change
history

Rulebooks change. We keep every version and date it.

Settlement write-ups

After each CPI and jobs print, how each venue actually paid, in plain English.

05 · Who it is for

Built for both
sides of the trade

Trader view · illustrative

See the payout gap before you hedge.

A pair that looks like free money can settle against you when one venue waits for data and the other does not.

06 · Methodology and trust

Every verdict is checked by a person before it ships.

Samuel KimFounder[email protected]

Public sources only

Government filings, published rulebooks and public blockchain records.

Field by field

The same eight fields on every pair, so verdicts stay comparable.

Dated and versioned

Every record shows when it was last checked and what changed.

Changelog Oct 9, 2026 Fed records: close time and rule citation corrected after review Oct 7, 2026 First ten macro pairs drafted

07 · Pricing

Simple pricing

Free$0

The newsletter and settlement write-ups.

Join waitlist

Founder preorder$199

Price locked for 12 months for the first ten. Fully refundable until delivery.

Preorder

Desk / APICustom

Structured feed access and direct support.

Talk to us

08 · FAQ

Are you affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket?

No. Lockstep is independent. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or paid by any venue, and each venue's official rules always control.

Where does the data come from?

Public records only: government filings, published rulebooks and public blockchain records. Every verdict cites its source and the date we last checked it.

What do I get for the preorder?

Founder pricing locked for 12 months, the full report set as it grows, and dispute alerts on the pairs you follow.

Can I get a refund?

Yes. The preorder is fully refundable until we deliver.

09 · Join

Same bet.Different rulebook.

One event.Three endings.